Ex Post Calibration of Flow-Based Domains from Hybrid European Market Clearing Outcomes

Arvy P., Capitanescu F., Lambert A., Porumbel D., Omont N.

International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2026

Abstract

Flow-based market coupling allocates cross-zonal exchanges in the European day-ahead electricity market, using parameters computed before market clearing. In particular, generation shift keys approximate how zonal exchanges translate into physical power flows. Because these parameters are defined ex ante, the resulting dispatch may misrepresent network flows, requiring costly redispatch after market clearing. This paper proposes a method to calibrate flow-based domains so that prescribed market outcomes become optimal for the day-ahead market clearing problem. The reference outcomes are obtained from a hybrid clearing, which combines zonal exchanges and prices with nodal transmission security constraints. The remaining optimality conditions of the zonal clearing problem are then recovered by solving a feasibility problem in which generation shift keys are decision variables. Numerical experiments on a stylized multi-zone power system show that the reconstructed domain reproduces the hybrid outcome and removes the need for redispatch while reducing total system cost.

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CAPITANESCU Florin

Sustainable Energy Systems

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